Numerical Environmental Prediction:
A Helpful Tool in Decision Making

What is numerical environmental prediction?

The Numerical Environmental Prediction Program for the St. Lawrence uses numerical modelling to simulate the evolution of physical, biological and chemical processes in the St. Lawrence and its watershed in order to predict the state of the corresponding terrestrial and aquatic environments.

This program:

  • Combines the expertise and prediction models of the various participants.
  • Increases prediction accuracy by combining various types of data to better understand the St. Lawrence ecosystem.
  • Supports the decision-making process.

The banks of the St. Lawrence

Examples of Numerical Environmental Prediction

Numerical environmental prediction can be applied to:

  • water: current, temperature, waves, level, flow rate, quality, salinity;
  • ice and snow: cover, thickness, temperature, density;
  • ecosystem health;
  • precipitation;
  • soil temperature and humidity.

What is numerical environmental prediction in the St. Lawrence used for?

Numerical prediction in the St. Lawrence is used to:

  • represent and predict the dynamics and state of the ecosystem while also facilitating adaptation to future conditions and analysis of the impact of climate change;
  • support public safety actions in the event of environmental emergencies, for example, in relation to an accidental spill that could contaminate the water, high or low-flow periods or search and rescue activities;
  • facilitate environmental assessments by supporting analysis of the impact of proposed engineering work, including the impacts on erosion and sedimentation processes;
  • support socioeconomic activities by enabling prediction, for example, of channel clearance and depth as required for commercial navigation based on various climate change scenarios.

Participants

Government of Canada

  • Environment and Climate Change Canada
  • Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Government of Quebec

  • Ministère du Développement durable, de l’Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques